The OODA Loop

Not actually Erin.

Picture by KJ Photography.

Used with permission.

This is an in-cockpit video of a pilot flying a World War 2 era TBM Avenger for 2015's Arsenal of Democracy flyover. At first, everything is fine, but suddenly there's smoke in the cockpit. The pilot scans back and forth, trying to find the source of the smoke, and you can you can almost hear him thinking, "What the heck is going on?" This goes on for about ten seconds until the rear seat passenger asks, "Are we on fire?" It's only then that the pilot starts executing pre-planned emergency procedures; he was stuck in his OODA loop until the question "Are we on fire?" shocked him out of it. 

OODA is an acronym for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. It's also called the Boyd Loop for the man who codified it, Colonel John Boyd, an Air Force strategist in the 1960s. Col. Boyd used the OODA loop as a way of describing how people think and make decisions, specifically under stress. While this process was originally designed to help pilots react to enemy planes during dogfights, the concept of the OODA loop is so universal that it has been applied to any sort of armed conflict. 

What is an OODA Loop?

In simplest terms, an OODA loop goes like this:

1. Observe as many details about the situation as you can, as quickly as you can. 
2. Orient yourself within that observation, essentially asking yourself, "Where do I fit into all of this?" 
3. Decide on which course of action to take based upon your observations and your orientation.
4. Act decisively and then observe what happens next, repeating the loop until the situation is resolved.

Anyone who has taken any sort of self-defense class is familiar with these steps. In fact, many tactical pistol classes teach OODA as part of their training, and state that the best way to win in a combat situation is to complete your OODA first, and then interrupt your opponent's OODA loop, forcing him to mentally reset from surprise. While he's observing your new behavior and trying to orient himself to it -- essentially going "Um, what?" -- you've already decided and acted to defeat him. Imagine someone coming into a crowded area with a gun, and instead of running or hiding, you charge him or you shoot at him. 

Prepping Applications

But what does this have to do with prepping? OODA isn't specifically about conflict, but rather about making correct decisions quickly so that you don't hesitate in a situation where hesitation could get you or another hurt or killed. In the video above, the pilot could clearly observe the smoke, but couldn't orient himself in regards to where it was coming from. If his passenger hadn't snapped him out of it, he might have crashed before he figured out what to do. 

Here are the components of the OODA loop as I see them applying to preppers:

1. Observe: Always be taking stock of the situation. Know where the fire alarms and emergency exits are when you're in a building; know what the weather is going to be like; know where your gear is and what's in it. Generally, be in a state of relaxed awareness, or Condition Yellow, to borrow from another colonel's lexicon. Throughout the day, this also means being proactive and asking yourself, "What would I do if X situation happens?" For example, if I noticed dark clouds, driving rain, and strong winds, this tells me that severe weather is here and that it could get worse. 
2. Orient: Know how the situation relates to you and what will happen if you do nothing, and what you assume will happen if you take a specific action. This is the heart of prepping: you know that bad things will happen at some point, and you can't control when that occurs, but you can control how you will respond to it. Since I live in an area where hurricanes are common, and I have observed that bad weather is here now, I orient myself by realizing that a hurricane may be approaching and that if I do nothing, I could be injured or even die. Therefore, I must ask myself, what do I do to prevent injury and death from this severe weather? 
3. Decide: Formulate a plan of action and execute it. I decide that I need to turn on the TV or the radio, or check a weather app to determine if I am in danger, and if so where the danger is coming from. 
4. Act: I act on my decision by investigating the weather. 
5. The cycle then repeats: I observe the weather; I orient myself to the situation regarding how strong it is and what direction it's headed; I decide if I should seek shelter, evacuate, or just get my poncho and rain hat because it's only a really strong thunderstorm that only looks scary; and I act on my decision, continuing to observe if the situation changes at all.

Don't Get Stuck

Getting stuck in an OODA loop can be inconvenient at the best of times and devastating during an emergency. This typically manifests in the following manner:

1. I observe something out of my experience, or I am taken by surprise. 
2. Whether due to an instinctive "freeze" response, or an inability to orient myself in relation to this completely new threat, I am unable to decide what to do. 
3. If I can't decide, then I can't act. 
4. Indecision leads to my brain resetting the OODA loop back to "observe". 
5. Sometimes this reset allows me the opportunity to observe helpful information which allows me to orient myself, and sometimes it does not. 
6. If not, the loop resets again, trapping me in OO-OO-OO, which sounds like gibbering and is just as useful. 

When someone gets inside your OODA loop, they have forced it to reset. As legendary boxer Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. Then, like a rat, they stop in fear and freeze." Pain, being a priority stimulus to the brain, is a fantastic way of resetting OODA. There are other ways to reset, however; as we saw in the above video, once the pilot was made to realize that his plane was on fire, he was able to act decisively based on his training. 

As has been said by others elsewhere: "Under pressure, you don’t rise to the occasion. You default to your level of training." With proper training, you can correctly orient yourself to the situation, determine what you need to do, and act with confidence. Without training, you may very well be stuck with a brain going "OO-OO-OO."